Adaptec (ADPT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT)

ADPT 14.50

+5.5%

1:08 PM EST

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To: BostonView who wrote (2041)	5/5/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: still learning	Read Replies (1) of 5944

Hard to say if it will go lower. I believe long term it will rebound, and will probably see a recovery by late Summer along with other DD-related stocks. Re 2 flat years -- we just entered FY99, which ends March 99, so the reference appears to reflect 1 flat year. While estimates can be suspect in a fluid environment, even the flat revenue estimates show about $1.45 in earnings, and since expenses are being managed very closely, they will likely be able to at least come close unless the industry problems persist longer than most people anticipate. If we're looking at $1.45 you can probably count on a low point of 17 as a firm floor. If they don't make estimates (especially by any significant amount) then all bets are off, because ADPT will pay for that mistake for 2-3 qtrs as it seeks to rebuild confidence. My view is that at 19, you may see some erosion but not much; that ADPT's problems are industry-sppecific, but not company-specific (it's the poor climate in DDS, but not the Fall of ADPT working here)

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