Johnathan, when ADPT was still in the 20's, I had a GTC for 17 3/4 which I cancelled and replaced with a 16 7/8. I came up with the 16 7/8 when the stock was @ 24, then earnings disappointed by 30%. So I picked 24 - 30% = 16.8 as my original target. Most stocks don't drop the full % of the earnings miss but I figured ADPT would. The reason I nibbled today, is due to what recently happened with CPQ. CPQ seemed to base pretty well at 25 (nothing like the duration of ADPT basing around 19), then the street started saying it was going to 20 or below, recommending it as a buy around 17. That took it down to base only 10% below to around 23 where they apparently loaded up while downgrading, because they took it to 33 from there.
So, I'm willing to buy a little when they took ADPT 10% down from the previous "bottom" on fears of mid teens. I'll sell if it doesn't pan out well, something you've had to do for safety with ADPT since the original 60% drop IMO. I've had to trade in and out several times since the drop and I'm still ahead because of not holding. The only "new" bad news that wasn't in the price is the last earnings miss. The price is now down almost 30% for a 30% miss. No one knows how low it will go, buy my bet is it'll never make it as low as the "street" tells us it will go ;-)
good trading,
Tom
btw, what's your target? |
