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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Allan Harris who wrote (766)5/15/1998 8:55:00 AM
From: Tom Trader  Read Replies (1) of 44573
 
Allan -- you have cited several points that is my experience, as well

>>As for stops, we have done extensive statistical testing of every conceivable stop strategy and concluded that the absolute best stop is no stop at all<<

That is what my testing over 10 years shows, without a doubt, when it comes to position trading--applies to the day that I enter a trade. Thereafter there is generally a reversal stop in effect.

>>But this is just not a practical policy, so we use a relatively wide stop, that gets hit on occasion, but keeps us in most of the trades through the MOC exits<<

And I do that as well, because I can't allow a position to stay in effect with no stop whatever. So I use a very wide stop that first day.

>>One strategy that seems to work well is to move the stop up to breakeven or a small profit once a minimum profit threshold is
achieved<<

I use a profit target--which at this point is 45 points

>>While this works nicely on days like yesterday, we tested it back to the beginning of our neural net signals (July, 1996) and discovered that overall performance of the system was inferior to our MOC exits.<<

One has to look at how a system does over a sufficient span of time that takes one through different types of markets. which is why I am resistant to making changes based on what is working best at a particular point in time

I am involved in research to see whether there are better approaches to taking profits or partial profits using an objective approach -- but whatever it is, I will not use it unless it works over 10 years or so.
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