I was in the process of responding to a private discussion that I have
been having with Starowl, when I thought that the following might
be of more general value to the rest of the thread (FWIW).
The context is that yesterday I had my finger placed over the buy
button on a number of stocks, but finally whimped out - on all four
of SMOD, APSG, QNTM, ADPT (at $16). Starowl's response to my action
included a number of pertinent points, plus the following -
You have been right with Adaptec, so far, by waiting. Let's (now) see,
"He who hesitates is lost"; "A stitch in time saves nine"; "Strike
while the iron is hot"; and of course "Fools rush in where wise
men fear to tread." It really is confusing!
Starowl
To which my (open-)response is -
Starowl,
Had you thought of applying for the position of one of Scrooge's
ghosts ? I suspect that role of Ghost of Xmas Future may be the
most appropriate.....
In the time between sending my last missive, and reading your
response I made a decision on which of my watch list I would
assimilate next. Unfortunately, by buying QNTM at 23 (somewhat
higher than its closing price for today) I may have fallen somewhat
short of the efficiencies of the Borg (and Slob ?), and further fear
that your recent metaphor overload (!) may yet provide the rotational
impetus to my final resting place............
And, should the inexactitude of the above fail you (and I doubt that
it will), I am currently wondering if I yesterday missed the
true bottom on ADPT, and that your Confucianism (confusionism ?)
may yet have me spinning in my grave.........
The bottom line here is that I am suspicious that Slob *may* have
precisely picked the bottom (to within a smidge of a gnatt's whisker),
and that I may yet live to regret hesitating over the buy button. However,
I am, in part, still somewhat uneasy, and, like Zeev (?) currently
remain on the sidelines (and with a bridge in London still awaiting
a purchaser !).
Tonight when sharing further thoughts with my QLogic friend, I
realised that the cause of my hesitation is that I still don't
think I understand why ADPT's profits have fallen
as they have.
There has been a lot of discussion on this thread about the weakness
in the SCSI market, which I now realise I have swallowed hook, line
and sinker. I have responded accordingly, but am increasingly
convinced that a weakness in this market is not the reason. So, I
now conclude that I have still not yet heard a credible explanation
for why ADPT has missed it's revenue and earnings targets for more
than one quarter.
Until I understand this aspect, I am afraid I will not be comfortable
with joining this particular party.
I suspect that Slob may yet be proven to have shown the most
exquisite of timing, and, should this prove to be the case, genuinely
wish him, and the various ADPT longs at this thread, the very best
of luck. However, I remain uneasy, for reasons that I do not
currently understand, and would like to resolve these concerns before
I make an investment.
Best wishes,
Mark |
