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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT)
ADPT 18.50-3.8%Jan 28 3:59 PM EST

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To: Starowl who wrote (2379)5/25/1998 2:14:00 PM
From: Jim Switz  Read Replies (1) of 5944
 
Starowl:

As I have stated previously, I believe Adaptec is in transitional mode. We all know SCSI is not forever. But Adaptec is very likely to remain dominant in SCSI as it declines, while moving to achieve market dominance in the newer technology. I very much like the current situation where in this difficult year the company is NOT hanging on to the past or the present.

The classic example of failing to understand your business is the railroads in the early part of this century. They thought they were in the railroad business. Wrong! They were in the transportation business. Trucks and air transport promptly started eating their lunch and it's taken a long time to recover.

So, does ADPT realize it's in the bandwidth business, not the SCSI business? I think so; they seem to give every indication of comprehension. But the last two quarters (and maybe the next two) seem to clearly indicate they got complacent and lost the edge. Let's hope they've clearly refocused.

I doubt they'd buy Symbios if it was dead-end technology (as has been commented here; I'm paraphrasing). If high-end SCSI was all Symbios could bring to the party, I suspect ADPT would have better uses for the $700+ million.

Looks like a wasted year for investors in ADPT, but I suspect they'll get the wheels back on the rails by the end of the year. Anyone else planning to join me at the annual meeting this year in Milpitas? Usually, it's pretty cut-and-dried. This year, I suspect not.

Jim
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