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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: steve in socal who wrote (4803)	6/1/1998 1:37:00 AM
From: Bruce A. Bowman	Read Replies (1) of 18928

Hi Steve- Glad to see you're still around the homestead. With one of us on each end of the state maybe we can keep it in balance! :-) When you get the new venture going, will you be able to hang around home a little more? or are you going to still pile up frequent flyer miles? BOST is one of those "whew!" investments: I didn't buy it... whew! Amazing how misleading earnings data can be when it gets published only once per qtr. and the current news is ugly. 6 months ago things were going to be better any minute now. Today relief is spelled out in Chapter 11. Sounds like a new symbol coming for BOST. Let's see... is that BOSTD or BOSTE? "MacDonald's of the Nineties"? Not likely. Got the notice about the pending suits. It said somewhere in there that I didn't have to do anything now so that was enough for me to put it in the "too hard to do" pile! :-) I keep bond data on my quote screen and I thought it had bottomed this past week, but without a chart to look at I can't be sure. At the very least the equities markets have to go back and test the recent lows. If the Nasdaq doesn't hold up at 1740, the next support is at 1640, then down to 1600. After that, we might as well turn out the lights and go home for a while... it could go to 1400 or (gulp!) lower. And the S&P 500 on a weekly chart looks very extended too (though it looks so-so on a daily). There's several ways these indices can get back to their averages and the extremes are either a one day trip straight down or they can go sideways for a month or 2 or 3 or...?. Your preference of which is best depends on whether you're one of those that rips off a bandage in one quick tug or someone who peels it back v-e-r-r-r-y slowly! :-) Of course, this says nothing about whether the averages are anywhere near correct values. In any case, it seems like the small caps never really took off this round. I keep waiting and it just doesn't seem to happen. Probably because they've never really shown much in the way of earnings (that's pure speculation). The Nasdaq index goes up and up, but the advance-decline line starts heading down again after an initial surge up. Seems like that could be the large caps reflected in the index and the small caps reflected in the A/D. Maybe we should be looking for divergence between A/D and Nasdaq index for an indication that something finally lit the small cap fire. I fear the "flight to safety" will just leave something else overpriced. I don't think there are very many hi-yield choices in the blue chips right now. I'll have to do a ranking on yield in Stock Investor and see what it turns up. I have a hunch it won't be too thrilling, but I'll let you know what I find. I just read the daily InterNet Week (now there's an oxymoron!) for Monday. Says IT managers aren't all that enthused about the crop of sub-$1,000 PCs ("business PCs"). Wonder what that means for Intel's new Celeron processor that they use in those machines? [Dell's announcing their entry on Monday.] Bruce

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