Adaptec (ADPT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT)

ADPT 18.50

+0.7%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: Johnathan C. Doe who wrote (2460)	6/2/1998 1:36:00 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) of 5944

John, ADPT is trading at it's lowest price since June 1995. There were a few lows on the monthly chart between 14 5/8 and 14 7/8 in 1995 but I think they are too far back to have much relevance today. Basically we are in no man's land and I can't figure out where the stock will find support until it starts basing. Unfortunately I don't see any evidence that ADPT is finding a bottom yet because it made a new low today. That doesn't mean that it won't start basing tomorrow but the chart looks pretty sick right now. With regards to the obsolete technology that some have mentioned on this thread, my only comment is that it's real easy to start bashing a company's fundamentals when their stock price is going down. People want to find a rational explanation for why a stock is doing what it's doing. Sometimes stocks go down because of a change in the fundamentals and sometimes they go down because the whole market is going down. In my judgement, ADPT is going down primarily because of the market and not because of a serious deterioration in the fundamentals. I don't think the slowdown at ADPT warrants the stock being where it is but we'll find out over the next few months if I'm right or wrong. With regards to Adaptec's products, the demand for RAID products should be pretty healthy and should do well in the future. Given the growth in online databases, the amount of information that has to be stored for backups, and the number of businesses that use network drives, one would think that the demand for RAID products would be very strong. The SCSI market is mostly a niche market and shouldn't be compared to the mainstream PC market. It has always been a niche market and will probably always be a niche market. ADPT found a way to make money in that market before and I see no reason why they can't make money there in the future. I've said it before on this thread...investors are pricing in a catastrophe and the stock will rally substantially if the catastrophe doesn't materialize. Dan

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