Opportunity is knocking. Loudly, imho. HMTT has knocked its competition so hard they may not get up. Komag and Stormedia are not looking like they will survive. They cannot produce quality disks as cheaply. It's as simple as that. No? Nowhere near as cheaply. Hundreds of millions of dollars are being lost by these other companies, trying to catch up. Even with these expenditures, they probably won't make it.
There is a clear winner here. The perception of disk suppliers is going to change.
The smoke is clearing. The confusion and uncertainty surrounding the disk drive industry has laid the valuation of this company down to where it can be picked up off the street. For nearly the same price as its dying competitors. It's kind of "circumstance", a fluke, an opening; being here to see the outcome, and understand it, at the right time. Its profitability has been unbelievable. Yes. Seemed impossible. Yah. But the evidence of its truth is here.
Market share and profitability will almost certainly increase going forward. We don't know what this quarters earnings will bring for sure. But if they are profitable, profitable at all, they will have outlasted the competition. They *could* be having a fantastic quarter. Someone is providing disks. When the earnings arrive, it will be impossible for even the Street to ignore the position and future this company has won for itself. It's easy to feel they will continue to apply the same quality control and management.
Komag's warning is profound. They're in deep, deep fade.
Stormedia too.
Akashic ~ they're all goners.
Probly, anyway. (I wouldn't want to be running them.) (Or holding them.) How the hell are they going to catch up? It looks like they can't even "match".
A chart of the last five days shows the volume steadily increasing, growing rapidly. If one wanted to accumulate this, one could let it fall into their hands, quietly, a little bit at a time. I think that's what's happening, and that it will not be so controlled in capture much longer. Someone may even pull the big trigger. I would. It's going to be very easy from here.
ALL just my opinion. Excellent thread here for resources. Now your objections, please. Or just add this, another, to the heap of what we've already known for some time.
Patience. A little more. (Yah, right!)
We can speculate about negative surprises ~ I like to look for them ~ but do we see any evidence? Maybe temporary light demand; fluctuations; but all in all? The disk drive biz could use one less major player, at least. Here, the field of competitors has already thinned for us, and one can pick their horse, to grow forward. It's a lot easier than trying to sort the drive makers. |
