Slob - Ironically, whilst you were writing that last post, I was trying
to get some thoughts together on what my current buy price would be.
I earlier said that I'd be happy with a PSR of around 0.7.
1) If Symbios doesn't happen, and ADPT do around $850m in sales, then,
with 115m shares, a PSR of 0.7 gives a share price of around $5. I
suppose I could be generous and add on the cash/share they have,
which is about another $6. In which case my buy would be < $11.
2) If Symbios does happen, and ADIOS has around $1.4b in sales, then
a PSR of 0.7 gives a share price of around $9. They'll still have a
little cash left - say $1/share - so my buy would be around $10.
The coincidence is that, on this basis, I think ADPT starts to look
like a buy at < $10.50, which is realistically close to your support
level estimate of $9.50.
HOWEVER, whilst I presently conclude that I do not wish to pay more
than $10.50 for ADPT, I am still not comfortable that <$10.50 necessarily
represents a buy.
Guess there are still too many unknowns.
Mark |
