Bobby,
I don't subscribe to the "ABCDE" interpretations. Never seen a case where it made sense to use it. My read is real simple at this point. Primary wave 1 ended on 4/6/98. Primary corrective wave 2 ended on 6/3/98. We began intermediate 1 up from the 6/3 low, and minor 1 of intermediate 1 completed on 6/8 (Monday). Since then, we were in a minor wave 2 correction. Minor corrections are generally 3 to 5%, which is exactly what this one was.
It was an ABC 3-3-5 expanded flat. The 5 wave move that started down on Wednesday afternoon completed itself around 1pm today, thus finishing the C wave of the correction. 1080 to 1084 was the projected bottom off the distribution pattern (variation of a double top), which is why I placed my order to buy at 1083. I shorted it in real life on the way down, but just can't be bothered with the micro moves for this game.
Off the 1pm lows today, we began minor 3 up of intermediate 1 up, and this up wave has already shown it will be powerful and full of elongated extensions. The first part of it took the S&P up nearly 20 pts. in just a few hours. I'm long until I can pinpoint the end of minor 5 up, which could very well be in the 1180 area, as you suggest. I'll do my homework and find it. It's a very safe long play for the next 10 days, in my opinion, and I'm backing that opinion with a lot of a** on the line with heavily leveraged positions from the mid 1080's.
I do expect a dip first thing Monday, probably to the low 1090's, which I believe will be the last and best chance to load up on heavy long positions for the ensuing onslaught.
There is so much money on the sidelines, and the market is so attractive with the 30 yr. bond at 5.65%. An investor/trader would have to be awfully nearsighted or brainwashed by Wall Street's self helping propaganda not to see this opportunity to long the market, one of the best I've ever seen in my career. They'll understand soon enough. It'll be just like late January/ early February all over again. All this bad news created the "wall of worry" for the market to climb on the way to it's next set of upside targets.
This 2nd wave down ending today creates a double bottom (Last Wednesday being the first). When 1130 is taken out on the SPX next week to the upside, the ultimate projection for this whole Primary 3 Wave, based on the double bottom projection, will target just past 1340 on the SPX. This will take it further than I had earlier anticipated. My best guess right now is that this would happen by the end of the year, but I won't know for sure how long it will take until we get to the end of intermediate 3 up of this 3rd primary wave up ,which should happen by the middle of July. Gonna be a hot summer!! Heh?
Regards,
David |
