Yep, certainty about Symbios either way is probably a plus for stock valuation. But given the possibility that it might not be integrated and managed into big profits (Cogent comes to mind again here, and exactly where ARE those 1394 products?), I'm not yet convinced the acquisition would be an unmitigated positive for ADPT. And count my vote for dumping that fab ASAP; Adaptec is not a fab house, has no experience managing one, doesn't have the cash to pour into one, and the income from a sale would be nice to help replenish the coffers. (Wonder what the market for fabs is these days? Probably not fabulous, so to speak.)
However, I'd still rather see the merger take place than not, for two reasons: 1) management has presumably been pretty focused on working out an integration, and wasting the last 4 months on this task would be a big hit to both morale and the company treasury. 2) if ADPT doesn't get Symbios, somebody else will; it's clear that Hyundai wants to unload it post-haste. That somebody else would likely be a direct competitor to ADPT.
If they get Symbios and muff it somehow, that's bad, but at least they'd be taking out a competitor. If they don't get Symbios, a different competitor will probably be enhanced. So I hope they do the deal, but there are so many unknowns and my confidence has been so shaken the last few months that I'm still on pins and needles about the whole damn situation. Well, boo-hoo ;-) |
