SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Non-Tech : HMT TECHNOLOGY - UNDISCOVERED YET!
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: T Bowl who wrote (2003)6/15/1998 1:12:00 AM
From: Bill Lin  Read Replies (1) of 2253
 
Great speculation!

Yes, I think your numbers will be very close to what the company will provide guidance on. However, I think maybe your numbers may be about 5% too high on revenue (81mm s/b 78mm).

Right now, they are working overtime. I don't know if they have a 4th shift for the weekends, or they pay overtime. But if they just cut weekend production, their variable costs should decline somewhat, and production will decline more than 12/13 as you suggested. It might decline 10 days/90 days = 11% - (so applying 88mm * .88 = 78mm) by removing all weekend production in July. Worst case scenario is all production in July and August is reduced and revenue come in only at 68mm. That would be a disaster.

Being more pessimistic (since you did the normal numbers) I'd expect a $0.10 qtr next qtr. and a $0.05 qtr after that. I think there is too much consensus in the industry that the "inventory correction" is over. Maybe it it, but I think that they will try to fill the channel way too quick.

Too much capacity out there, and with GMR coming out, the situation is wicked for the next 3-4 years.

HOWEVER, HMTT is still the must buy in this industry. Maybe QNTM too.

Maybe 1 more huge downtrend in the ddx industry so that PSR ranges below 0.5, then it'll recover??

Great job Todd. Very classic extrapolation.

BL
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News