Mark, thanks for the understandable explanation on SCSI vs 1394 wiring.
One thing I'd like to add that's just about always missing from the discussions here, is ADPT's position in CD/DVD recording. All the discussion is to whether SCSI is dead or not. Over the recent years, I've felt ADPT was pricey (see para below) but dared to enter on dips for one reason: CD/DVD potential, not SCSI. I still feel this is their Trojan (read short covering) Horse. One day, when all seems lost (any time now would be just fine thank you), the street's presses will roll off lots of propaganda on just about the only reasonable removable media peripheral bound to be soon installed on all PCs - that being recordable CD/DVD. ZIP, floppies and tape cannot offer the price/capacity, potential installation base, and media durability. Although the drives themselves are sure to be a commodity, the software that organizes all those GBs (via SCSI at least for now IMO) will most likely NOT be as ADPT has been making the key acquisitions of those competitors much like they did in the earlier days of SCSI. I think we'll hear a lot about it over the next year.
I feared ADPT was overpriced a couple years ago when I started following it, and expressed on this thread then that I thought the price action looked extremely manipulated. I felt mgmt really knew how to play this game called the "market" - they always sold a lot, always at the top. The stock always dropped sharply, then seemed to masterfully rise to new highs squeezing the shorts who rushed in on the insider selling - quarter after quarter. I was always afraid to hold this very long wondering if the market would one day get even. Their current cash position does concern me about their ability to "engineer" their next squeeze. However, if the past is any indication, they know how to play this game and I would not be surprised if they borrow or sell the fab for a buyback. Worst case is as we're approaching book value, ADPT will itself become a takeover target for a change. Someone would be getting access to one heck of a lot of engineering talent between ADPT & Symbios.
One last comment. Someone just mentioned they thought book value was about $8. Was that ADPT standalone? Does anyone have the numbers to calculate a combined ADPT + Symbios book value, that's the key.
the above is my opinion and of course not professional investment advice,
comments/discussion encouraged,
thanks in advance,
Tom |
