Hehe, well that's the whole trick isn't it. I suppose
it really depends on the type of asset, for instance,
I'm not too interested in Chinese biotech, British
gold, or Japanese agricultural companies...these are
types of pairing just don't match up...but averaging
into a diversified cef which trades at a discount, well
I think that is a no-brainer, especially when you have
ten or twenty years to let it cook--heck, my kids are
still but a twinkle in my lovely wife's eyes. Hopefully
the CEF manager is into Chinese infrastructure.
Anyway, which countries will be the leaders. I think it
is natural to go for the greatest populations--especially
for increasingly industrialized countries like the ones
I listed, the obvious big three.
On the other hand, how about this argument:
Maybe the brightest prospects for a country are mostly
determined by the commitment toward educating it's citizens,
and the degree to which the highest number of people are
entering the years in which they consume (and produce) the
most.
In short, young smart countries. You could put Korea in
there I think, maybe a few of the latin countries, in a
few years some of the emerging ex-soviet states.
I don't really have a better answer, it is such a crap shoot,
but like I said, perhaps buying cefs which happen to trade
at a discount will help cushion any poor choices, it might
even be a good idea to go for two or three--just in case
politics wreck one choice.
You can always just throw a dart and not sweat it--just get
the heck out if you reach your mental stop. The best pick
will probably be the one which hardly occured to anyone--
anybody for that Kazakstan fund?--hehe, happy hunting.
Mobius always talks about Thailand--maybe there? |
