I've really been looking hard at this entire technology debate involving
ASDL and DSP, etc...and admittedly, most of the technical discussion is a
bit over my head. My conclusion is, and here again, I could certainly be wrong, but I
think ASDL will become the, or at the very least, a "technology
of choice" by the year 2000. Some reasons:
1. A comment I read from the CEO of Bell Atlantic.
Paraphrased it was, "ASDL a short term solution? Well,
I suppose...if you consider 40 years to be 'short term'."
2. It appears the telcos need a technology like this to be
major players in the future of the internet. There
doesn't seem to be any way around ASDL currently if they
want to compete with the cable companies as ISP's and
"pay-per-view".
3. Something I believe referred to "duplex capacity". Namely,
the ability to transmit voice and data at the same time.
I see this as a big plus.
4. A large segment of the infrstructure is already in place.
Virtualy every home in the USA/world is POTS wired
(twisted copper wire) POTS is currently a dead end, or at
least a giant barrier, for most existing technology, and
even some still on the drawing board.
But it's not going to be the "slam dunk" I (and a lot of other people)
first thought. A couple of the obstacles:
1. You have to be be fairly close to the main
transmission/switch. The biggest/best number I've
run across is about 18,000 feet. Hopefully this will
improve.
2. It's going to be capital intensive. Im seeing estimates
as high as $2,000 per customer currently, with estimates
dropping to the $300--$500 range if done on a large scale
Figuring there's 600 million homes worldwide as potential
customers, times the $500 figure, you get 300 billion in
capital investment necessary to complete the network
infrastructure. That's equal to the "paid-in capital" of
about 18 AT & T's -- a very big number.
I'm going to post this much of what I've "learned", and intentionally
leave out the companies I've been looking at as possible investment
plays. What I'm wondering is, at this point, if I'm pretty much "on
the money" as far as my assessment of the technology. As I stated
earlier, much of the technical discussion is over my head, and I'm
wondering if I have possibly misunderstood or overlooked something of
importance. I'd love to here from someone who will approach this in an
objective manner, and not out to "dis" one technology over another
simply because they have a vested interest in one of the "players".
Please keep your replies as technically simple as possible--my brain
is already hurting from all the acronyms commonly thrown around on
hese threads.
Thanks. I'll post my "picks" after I get a reply or two.
the"dodger" |
