To the "thread,"
Early line on today's presentation in NY (which I have heard second hand, so apologies in advance if I don't get it exactly right....maybe one of the other "thread" contributors will be posting, too):
1) The company expects 20% market penetration by ITS. As of this moment, it anticipates ITS revenues of approximately $120 million by 2001.
That would give rise to a revenue progression something along these lines:
1997 ~ $8 million
1998 ~ $23-$24 million
1999 ~ $35-$38 million
2000 ~ $65-$75 million
2001 ~ $120 million
2002 ~ $160-$200 million
It is my understanding that this judgement does *not* include contributions from the balance of the ITS family of products, which includes the very important and marketable ITTR (inflatable tubular torso restraint, AKA the ITS seatbelt).
16G airline seats will be ramped close to $5 million a month by the fourth quarter, and fully 1999 revenues should be at least $60 million. Pretax profit margins are expected to be in a range of 12%-16%.
The third quarter San Diego plant consolidation will have some impact on production. Though the period's earnings are expected to exceed those of quarter two, the sizeable jump expected remains likely to hit the quarter after.
All in all, no surprises other than an ITS market share "guess" from the company that comfortably exceeds what I had been hoping for. Also, from what I understand, there was some public discussion of a "spinoff" of Auto Products, but management indicated that it was still in the "maybe we will" stage. My best guess is that it will be at least until the fourth quarter before we see news on that front.
Have a good evening. |
