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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (1327)6/30/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: Robert Graham  Read Replies (2) of 44573
 
Thank you for responding to my posts, Patrick. In the area of day trading futures, there is much for me to learn. I am here to understand what is involved and how day traders think when trading futures or options on the S&P 500. I think it is to my benefit the more I know about what the other market players are doing,

This author seems to take the approach that he is willing to let the price backfill on a winning position where he may add to the position for further gains. Also, he considers it a winning position even though the price is in this way eating up some of his profits.

One item the book talks about is the "true trend". The author writes that many times when the price looks to be starting into an intraday trend, it is not and for instances moves back on the trader. So the trick is to identify the "true" trends from the price action that is really not the beginning of a new trend, and to do this quickly of course since trends seem to happen and end very quickly.

Matter of fact, one of the author's entry strategies to to take a position when the price is in consolidation after the first leg of the morning trend. Waiting until the trend develop in this scenario he thinks is too late. For one thing, fills would be very poor during that time. Also he uses a stop watch to time the price moves. He notes that the price moves are symmetrical with respect to price and time. So the second leg will likely be the same length of the first price move and will take the same time when it happens. The trick here is to determine if the second leg will be up or down to extend or retrace the price move of the first leg. He claims to have this approach down where he can anticipate the end of the price move to within a couple ticks of its end and very close to the time the moves finishes. So he is on the phone a precalculated time before the end of the price move knowing that it will take time for his order to hit the floor. If the price ends up at a place where it should not be with rexpect to time even though the price has so far validated his play on the trend, then he thinks this is the market telling him something is wrong, like perhaps an impending reversal. I will post some more details on this approach of his.

So my question to you is first, what do you do to seperate the "true" trends from price action that is likely not to end up as a trend? Also, is it possible for a trader to demonstrate a workable degree of accuracy using the above price and time technique. This is not to say that there will be times this approach will not work. I am sure he has a method to exit a losing trade.

Bob Graham
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