Patrick,
Since you are discussing your system and your plan for the day, could you clarify, if possible, how it is that your plan is generated? I know you use some form of pattern analysis, but how is this done. Do you set up the plan the night before, the morning of, or after the open? It seems to me that it might be possible to set up a plan after about the first hour or so of trading once you see what is happening that day.
I have become fairly consistent at being able to grab a point here or a point there based on some indicators. Usually I will either break-even (defined as .25 to .50 of one point to cover commission) or book a point to a point and a quarter. However, I find that my short term indicators tend to take me out of a position 5 to 10 minutes before it really starts cooking.
A couple of trading days ago, I put a trade on the books (paper trading) of short the Mini at 1156. I still have it on the books and am moving my 4 point stop accordingly. I am not watching it every minute, but am observing the action from time to time. The reasons I put the trade on are outlined in my notebook as follows: TICK/Indices divergence, indices higher, TICK equal, High PREM in AM and Gap Open. Trade went on at 9:42 am on 6/29. To be perfectly honest, I have no idea when to get out and have decided to let myself be stopped out. Had I been moving the stop with some precision, I already would have been stopped out, but I have not.
So back to my original question, how do you determine a plan ahead of time, especially when your plan ought to change with the market as the market changes? I guess what I am driving at is I would like to be able to leave a position on longer than a few minutes and capture some bigger moves, but to date do not see anything other than my gutt feel for where the market should go to do a good position trade.
Ack...that is a lot to ask.
-Scott
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