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Gold/Mining/Energy : Central Pacific Minerals & Southern Pacific Petroleum
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To: Thomas M. who wrote (21)7/5/1998 3:22:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack  Read Replies (2) of 90
 
Thomas Miller; thanks for your post on Strictly Drilling thread;

I have reviewed everything on Suncor's Web Site concerning their Canadian Oil Sands and the Australian Stuart project. There is a high degree of risk, ie: crude prices, the effectiveness of transfering Suncor's technology from oil sands to shale and unforseen cost or technology obstacles. However, this is a ''thinking man's'' bet/investment given the intriguing risk vs. reward scenario here. The fact that the entire process has evolved slowly and conservatively and involves principals Suncor Energy with their technology, management expertise, financial capacity and that Sir Ian McFarlane being a former Morgan Stanley director is involved separates this from a BATT or KTEL type of speculation.

The interesting near term factor is how the stock price will change as Stage I comes online and to what degree we see appreciation with a successful Stage I versus the evolution of Stage I to Stage II where the large scale commercialization of the technology will be proven. I am assuming the major appreciation will occur after Stage I proves successful - I am curious as to how the long term followers of the Stuart project feel about this issue; where will the major appreciation occur ? -- present to stage I, Stage I to Stage II, or when full capacity occurs in stage III and the resulting growth in production and with the final realization of actual costs and earnings info?

Also, while I read a prior post reflecting CPMNY's vs. SPPTY's 2.5 : 1 Brl per share ratio - what are the actual ownership/revenue percentages of Suncor, CPMNY & SPPTY ? It appears the purest play on the Australian Stuart project's success is CPMNY - is this correct ? - if so what are the pro & cons of investing in CPMNY vs. SPPTY (my main question) ?

Suncor would be the conservative play here as they will obviously profit with the success of the Stuart project but have the security of their other business base, including the expansion of their own Oil Sands project... I'm leaning to a purchase of Suncor & CPMNY; with Suncor's diversity and appreciation potential even in light of a Stuart project failure to offset the potential ''bust'' of CPMNY in the event of a Stuart failure... I can absorb CPMNY's write off of $6-$7 into Su's future appreciation.

This is the single greatest opportunity; allthough not without substantial risk, that I have ever seen... Comments ?
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