LLCoolG: I agree with your sentiments in the last paragraph of your reply,
<<So in wildly succesful companies, insider selling is not a great marker to gauge.>> I don't get excited at these guys (and one gal) selling for similar reasons. They are all worth seven+ figures, so what's the big deal?
As for July 21, we'll all have to see, but I always like to see predictions from the thread. Assuming your gut feel is between 0.14 and 0.21, what DO you think it might be? BTW, there are no prizes here - just for fun.
So far I haven't seen any predictions - only what people predict the predictions ought to be.
Nasdaq777 might believe 0.21 - I don't know.
0.16 - 0.17 could be considered 'smashing' (as in the English adjective ... "a smashing result, wot old chap?"). Seriously, don't you think anything exceeding the 0.17 would be a BIG surprise?
So let's hear from the thread. How about % earnings increase too? Remember that PSFT will likely publish 2 sets of numbers - one discounting the impact of recent acquisitions for comparative purposes.
EPS predictions can include fractions for tie breakers. (Remember a 0.14EPS figure could be anywhere from 0.135 through 0.01449, unless I am mistaken).
I think a good idea is to look at PSFT's expectations to grow 50% - 60% in 1998 over 1997 and does 0.14 fit with that model? Consensus numbers for 1998 so far show about 50% growth over 1997.
In Q2 1997, PSFT was about 80% better than 1996 and I don't know how much they beat any consensus numbers back then. I don't think they will be far off what they predict for themselves.
Of course, I do not know whether software and services sales in Q2 were on, above , or below targets - and that is certainly going to be the major factor in final results. I mean if we did know this, we'd have inside info, right? I haven't actually talked to anyone this quarter, so I don't even have a general feel for it. I also think PSFT is always building the future potential for growth, but I doubt there was any explosive growth last quarter. But, we will have to see, won't we?
So I stick with a more conservative maximum of 0.16. One good thing -- I haven't heard anyone suggest they will NOT meet expectations.
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So post those predictions and I'll keep track and put them in a summary post after a few days.
See ya... |
