Beyond IT Systems:
The Year 2000 Problem
Touches Everything
12 March 1997
Management Edge: Year 2000
An excerpt from "The Year 2000 Crisis: An Enormous Challenge that Must be
Addressed"
Strategic Analysis Report from the Gartner Group
D. Brown, W. Close, B. Conway, C. Germann, C. Goodhue, B. Hall, M. Hotle, C. Jones, N.
Jones, H. Kline, M. Light, S. Nelson, J. Pucciarelli, B. Reilly, J. Seay, P. Sondergaard, B. Stanco,
R. Terdiman, E. Andren
Back to the Year 2000 resources page.
The number of non-IT computers in the world far exceeds those in IT. Some are date-aware and
embedded in mission-critical systems, and therefore must be checked for year 2000 compliance.
Many enterprises own non-IT equipment, such as process control or monitoring systems, that is
both mission-critical and date-aware, and that may contain year 2000 errors. Although the risk of
failure is low, the consequences of failure may be very serious. Hence, these must be investigated
as part of the overall year 2000 project.
Strategic Planning Assumption: More than 50 million embedded-system devices worldwide
will exhibit year 2000 date anomalies in 1999 (0.6 probability).
The challenge that these devices pose is not restricted to IS organizations or IT applications. Most
of the computers in the world are performing non-IT functions. In 1995, Dataquest, a Gartner
Group company, estimated worldwide shipments of reduced instruction set computer (RISC) and
x86 microprocessors at more than 200 million units -- over half of which were in embedded
systems.
The number of microprocessors is tiny when compared to the more than three billion
microcontroller chips shipped in the same period. These are small, programmable units with word
lengths ranging from 4 to 32 bits embedded in consumer and industrial devices. The average car
contains 14 microcontrollers, and some include more than 45. Other uses include video recorders,
microwave ovens, factory machinery and air-conditioning systems. The following examples
illustrate a selection of commercial, date-aware embedded systems:
Environmental-control units
Factory printing and packaging machinery
Process control and monitoring equipment
Video recorders
Security and access control systems
Telephone exchanges
Traffic lights
Civilian and military avionics
Year 2000 faults in many of these units would be annoying rather than catastrophic; however,
enterprises cannot afford to ignore the small percentage that have direct business impact. Failures in
the following embedded systems, for example, would be unacceptable:
Factory printing and packaging machinery. The law requires expiration dates to be
printed on food products in many countries.
Traffic lights. Failure could cause accidents.
Military systems. Weaponry might not operate correctly.
Monitoring equipment. Enterprises such as nuclear power stations may be legally required
to log measurements.
Issues for Non-IT Systems
Although many enterprises are aware of this issue, in 2H96, less than 5 percent investigated it in
sufficient detail to provide a quantitative assessment of its impact (0.7 probability). Issues to
consider include:
Microcontroller equipment may be connected to corporate IT systems (e.g., printing bar
codes, batch numbers and expiration dates on manufactured goods). The year 2000 date
problem can be exported or imported via such links.
Many enterprises own non-IT equipment (e.g., in process control or monitoring systems)
that is both mission-critical and date-aware, and that may contain year 2000 errors.
Identifying and correcting year 2000 errors in embedded systems is expensive (generally
requiring significant manual effort). Much factory equipment cannot be shut down or tested
trivially. Embedded controllers and microprocessors may be in units that are no longer
manufactured, or suppliers may not be able to offer updates. Even when correction is
possible, a physical hardware update (such as a new ROM chip) may be required.
Companies that have manufactured consumer or industrial equipment that is not
year-2000-compliant must be prepared for conversion, support and legal costs. The laws
that may relate to year 2000 conformance and consumer products vary substantially among
different countries, and generally have not yet been tested in court. In some European
countries, general consumer legislation (such as the U.K. requirement that goods be "of
merchantable quality and fit for their purpose") will force suppliers to deliver conformant
products, although the date when this becomes legally necessary is still undefined. A further
complication is that, in some countries, the law applying to consumers differs from the law
that applies when two parties, such as business enterprises, enter into a mutually negotiated
contract. In the latter case, the responsibility for year 2000 conformance may be more
explicitly assigned.
It is generally difficult and expensive to identify and audit embedded systems. The process
cannot be automated and is likely to require physical inspection of hardware distributed
widely throughout the enterprise.
A Plan for Embedded Systems
A high-level project plan to investigate year 2000 conformance in embedded systems might consist
of six stages:
Responsibility. Appoint a project coordinator reporting to the year 2000 project office.
Education and Awareness. Investigating the year 2000 impact of embedded systems
cannot be carried out centrally; it will require effort from every business location in the
enterprise. Embedded systems are less obvious than IT programs; an education and
awareness program is essential to ensure that staff understand the risks and the many forms
embedded systems can take.
Inventory. Create an inventory of date-aware embedded systems in all business locations.
Prioritizing and Planning. Investigation may be expensive and the impact of embedded
system date errors may vary from trivial to catastrophic. Effort should be concentrated
initially on those systems posing the greatest business risk.
Investigation. Determine if date-aware equipment is year-2000-compliant. This may
involve testing or contacting suppliers. As initial results arrive, statistical techniques can be
used to obtain early estimates of overall cost to be fed back to the year 2000 project office.
Correction. Correct or replace equipment and interfaces as necessary.
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