There is some indication that ALYA might be under accumulation even though the price fell the last two days (Tuesday and Wednesday).
Warning: this is based on preliminary information and upon a *very* limited analysis. More to follow, as I refine it.
Details: Often times the beginning (or reversal) of a trend is camouflaged by the very bulk of the transactions. One means of trying to peer into the forest and count the trees is to ignore all transactions below a given size, and then determine whether the remaining transactions were up-ticks or down-ticks, relative to the preceding "large" transaction. Ideally this is done for a given stock over a long period of time ... several short-term cycles ... and a pattern begins to appear. Often the pattern can be focused by varying the cutoff size.
I have heard this described as a "DAV chart" and it is constructed similarly to the MFI chart, except "more so" because it looks only at larger transactions.
I just completed the spread sheet program to do this for myself, and so I have only a few days of data. Also I cannot back-test it since I do not have access to historic "time and sales" reports ... only same day reports (which I am storing).
For this first test, I selected 5,000 shares as my threshhold transaction size -- arbitrarily selected, but this INcludes about 2/3 of the volume for a typical day but EXcludes well over half the individual transactions.
7/9/98 .94 -8,200 (cumulative net, since start)
7/10/98 .90 -36,100
7/11/98 .88 -63,400
7/12/98 .81 -54,400 (daily positive, despite price drop)
7/13/98 .80 -39,000 (another daily positive)
further details to follow |
