UDan, I think you are Henry are talking apples and oranges. I've seen it time and time again where someone says "Big News Coming, Get in Now!" without absolutely any details -- and people pile on. CYGS is a good recent example as someone mentioned. However, I've yet to see a stock tank because some yells "This stock sucks!"
Therefore, shorts have to use a combination of intelligence and guile. The vast majority of people don't really research the stocks they buy. Either they identify with the company or they got a tip from someone. Shorts always seem to "know" the small stuff, claim they can read between the lines, or allege the company is not telling you the whole story. The old FUD factor: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. It's a slow painstaking process, but if done well can be highly effective.
So, I suppose the compromise here is that if you want to make a career out of being a hypester or a shorter, I'd pick the shorter. I liken hypesters to home-run hitters and shorters to those who hit for average. Hypesters tend to burn out fast as people either tire of their antics or perhaps the SEC pays them a visit. Good shorts, on the other hand, just kind of chug along bulldozing everything in their path. As you point out, it only takes getting burned by one hype job to learn a lesson, but we tend to chain ourselves to trees when shorts move in time and time again. (g)
- Jeff
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