DRAM future capacity flattening news from Japan. 25% growth through year end then flat after that:
<<A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc.
Story posted at 11 a.m. EDT/8 a.m., PDT, 8/3/98
NEC cuts capital spending by 17%, slows 64-Mbit ramp-up
TOKYO -- NEC Corp. today belatedly joined other Japanese chip
makers in reducing its semiconductor capital spending this fiscal year.
NEC is cutting back 17% to $1.04 billion (150 billion yen), because of
the current distressed global chip market.
NEC last May said it would try to keep capital investment for the fiscal
year (ending next March 31) at the same $1.25 billion (180 billion yen)
level as the previous year. Actually, even this total would have
represented a cut in capital spending in Japan, the U.S. and Europe, as
NEC ramped up sepnding on its new $1 billion joint-venture fab, Hua
Hong NEC, in Shanghai, China.
NEC, the largest Japanese IC maker, also disclosed that it is slowing its
ramp-up in 64-megabit DRAM production. NEC will increase 64-Mb
output from the current 8 million units a month to 10 million monthly by
the end of the year, and then hold at that level. Originally, the firm had
planned to continue increasing 64-Mbit output to 15 million units a month
in March 1999.
Excess DRAM production capacity will be devoted to making ASIC
devices instead. In turn, that will alleviate the need for new ASIC
capacity, so NEC is delaying a ramp-up at its Yamagata ASIC fab for
one year, until 2000.>>
To rationalize this in terms of wafer starts per month, I assume 500 die per wafer. That means current NEC wafer starts are 16,000 per month growing by year end to 20,000. Bottom line, that means more capacity for the near term. With no improvement seen on the demand side, continued price pressure, or at best flat. At least future supply growth expectations have been trimmed. |
