Greg,
Thanks for the reply.
"At best AOL increases revenue by 20 million from new customer
influx."
This would be the monthly increase. The annual increase would
be $240 million. Let's say that 50% of the previous customers
remain on the previous charging plan and that their bills come
to an average of $6.00 per month. That's $252 million. And
that the remaining 50% of the previous customers move to the
$19.95 rate. That's $840 million. At total of $1,332 million
yearly from the subscribers. That's $14.29 per outstanding share
using 93169000 as the number of outstanding shares.
From AOL's last qtr report:
1996 1995
Online service revenues $311,132 $178,479
Other revenues 38,850 19,423
-------- ---------
Total revenues 349,982 197,902
As you know the above numbers are in thousands of dollars.
If we take the $311,132,000 number and anualize it, it
comes out to be $1,244 million.
All this shows is that by using my conservative estimates,
AOL should show an increase of $88,000,000 in revenues for
the next year from subscribers. If more than 1,000,000
additional subscribers, the revenues are higher. If less
than 50% of the previous subscribers remain on the previous
charging rate, the revenues will be higher.
Now that I wrote all of that, I really can't be sure of much
other than the profits should remain steady or better.
I don't think we'll see AOL at $27 again. I'm still going
to get more if it gets down to $32-$33.
al |
