Thomas:
Is it possible that you see TLC as an always happy and risk free investment?
C'mon! First there is a chance that the asian crisis could worsen and weigh down the U.S. markets and economy. Much of the domestic purchase power is driven by the wealth effect of the market. If things get really bad, PC penetration may not continue on its current pace and for that matter most stocks will go down as the economy slows.
Second, there are significant risks related to the spin off of the Cendant division. Obewon is rational in that MSFT may have a strategic use for the educational segment with no material interest in raising prices. Given the ridiculous asking price for the division and the CURRENT management's past history of wildly dilutive acquisitions, there's a risk that TLC management overpays for Cendant as a defensive move. (Yes, I'm aware that Thomas Lee and Bain may limit that type of behavior, but if I didn't point it out, Johnny or P Richard would have.)
Thomas, your information flow is FABULOUS, but your consistently positive views could be seen by some as similar to P. Richard's irrational posts. If an asteriod were headed for earth, would you be touting the possibility of increased prices and 100% market share for TLC?
I still like TLC stock, but it is just a certificate of ownership, with pros and cons. I think TLC is a great tech stock, reasonable valuation, no asian exposure, no y2k exposure and in front of powerful demographic and market trends. It could see the mid 40's in a year.
But there are risks. I know you are a rational thinker, but a balanced viewpoint increases credibility.
TD |
