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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year
PSFT 0.00010000.0%Oct 29 5:00 PM EST
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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (1844)8/21/1998 3:23:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (2) of 4509
 
Chuzzlewit,

I agree with your post but in this case the mkt sentiment is a reflection of a changing business climate. Buy and hold is one thing, but if you are looking at a new investment in the enterprise sw sector then you really need to determine what this y2k effect is going to be. The possible outcomes are:

1) Y2K does nothing, stocks currently oversold. (most bullish)

2) Y2K causes a temporary hit to the space, but growth resumes afterwards. The probable effect is enterprise sw stocks stay flat for a while, then resume the upward growth. (neutral)

3) Y2k actually caused a temporary increase in the sales of new licenses for enterprise sw over the past, say 3 yrs. This would mean that the previous growth rates were somewhat artificial. (bearish)

Of course you have the individual stock picking within the sector as a whole where some companies are going to gain by taking mkt share away from others. Personally I feel Psft,Sap and Sebl to be the 3 companies likely to do that - so some growth from that. But, if one of the scenarios #2 or #3 from above come to pass, then the entire sector will underperform for a while.

JMO
Michelle
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