PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year Message Board

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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year

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Oct 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: LLCoolG who wrote (1863)	8/24/1998 1:48:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (3) of 4509

LL I'll tell you why I am on this thread. Technology is a rapidly changing area, and it is especially important to keep abreast of the news. I welcome the the insights offered by Raptor, Melanie and Michelle among others, because they provide me with insights into the competitive landscape and pinpoint issues I would like to learn more about. I maintain my positions in the stocks I own so long as the fundamentals remain intact, and since I'm not smart enough to figure them out directly, I lean on people who have a much greater grasp of the technology than have I. But I do have an excellent grasp of finance, mathematical modeling and statistical analysis, so I will repeat something I've said before. TA has no empirical basis, no theoretical basis and no statistical support. It is mumbo jumbo that wraps itself around the argot of the statistician without the rigor of mathematics, nor the statistical testing required of any reasonable predictive system. I would sooner consult an astrologer than place my bets on market timing based on chart reading. Did you study time series analysis in your MBA curriculum? If you did, you would know that there is no Box Jenkins or ARIMA solution to stock market price volume relationships. These time series follow what is called a random walk in statistical parlance. I have been invested in PSFT for a little over two years. During that period of time my investment has appreciated at an annualized return of about 70%. Characterizing this company as a dog seems a little overstated, don't you think? TTFN, CTC

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