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Non-Tech : Simula (SMU)

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To: Noblesse Oblige who wrote (1314)	8/24/1998 2:28:00 AM
From: Jaime H. Ayalde	Read Replies (1) of 1671

Off thread... The rail road effect is on. (The dual track is the cost of money, long vs short) The tracks of the train have crossed and as the economic train comes steaming down the tracks, it will be nasty. >An inverted yield curve is pretty strong evidence of an impending recession.> History has a way of repeating itself but never in the same manner. This is indeed a unique situation as inversions are actually caused by the fed, this time it has been caused by the open markets. The fed has its hands tied and following the market will be its only move. I am quite surprised at the destruction of paper wealth already in effect in Latin America. I see the Venezuelan averages have dropped over 50%, and the devaluation has yet to occur. quote.yahoo.com^ibc&d=b Its not only the % drop, but the speed that it is occuring. This index traded at 10,000 plus within the last 52 weeks. I see crude dropping to 7-8 dollar level, and that will indeed cause some world pain. Jaime

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