PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year Message Board

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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year

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Oct 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (1872)	8/24/1998 1:02:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe	Read Replies (1) of 4509

I guess it must be time for our semi-annual discussion of the merits of TA vs. Fundamental Analysis.<g> I'll just chime in here and say what I always say.....I don't understand why both can't just co-exist peacefully. I think the best solution all around is to use both....or whatever other tools are available. Personally I think the smartest alternative is to use both. Even if you were to say that TA is only accurate 80% of the time it's still better than not having it all. If no one believed in it but a small handful of people then it would have no merit since the basis for it isn't just reading charts. It's the psychology of people that's moving the stock prices and is thus reflected in the charts. e.g. why is it that when a stock moves above its 50 day MA, it will most often move up from there? Or the reverse when it moves below its 50 day MA. Or why do stocks hit resistance when they reach their prior high? It's because people sell at that point. Now I'm by no means saying TA is better or worse than Fundamental Analysis. But to simply dismiss is totally is in my opinion foolish. On the other hand to rely on it totally is also foolish. Though there are many who do each of these and are still very successful. Using PSFT as an example....great fundamentals, not so great short term TA lately. So do you buy now or not? I could buy psft right now based purely on fundamentals. But why do it when I might just watch my money sit and go nowhere. Or worse case go down....even though I believe it isn't forever. Did it hit a bottom at 31 or not. I don't know but I wish I did. Right now there are just too many people who don't feel positive about these stocks. e.g. BTW, while I was writing this they just had a a little blurb on CNBC about enterprise software stocks. It wasn't very positive about the segment. Talking about the slowing growth. They mentioned psft. Said the company said deferred license has slowed. Also mentioned vntv. Too bad they don't know what they're talking about since vntv had a very bad quarter last quarter which they didn't even mention. Then they mentioned itwo who guided analysts downward for the next quarter because they are having problem in Europe. The net was analysts don't expect a rebound soon. Then Sue Herrera said something like gee...sell those stocks....they're duds. But I don't know why they picked those three. Each of them is a different situation. But unfortunately they're all considered enterprise software. Melissa

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