HOW TO SAVE THIS PRESIDENCY
By DICK MORRIS
FORGET about Monica Lewinsky for just a minute and look at
the rest of Clinton's recent record as president.
His major domestic legislative priority - the tobacco bill - died a
disconcerting death in Congress. His other significant
initiatives - Medicare expansion and child care - have been
deliberately ignored.
Meanwhile, his foreign-policy achievements are unraveling -
chaotically. There is still no progress in the Middle East, the
Irish peace accord is threatened by violence, North Korea
seems to be gearing up new nuclear capacity, non-proliferation
is in ruins after India's and Pakistan's nuclear explosions, and
peace in the Balkans is as far away as ever.
The prosperous economy is threatened by Japanese
recession and Asian currency instability and Russia is
perilously unstable. Social Security reform is still a far-off goal.
Yet Clinton still gets good marks on his job performance. Even
after his speech admitting to the Lewinsky affair, his job rating
still stands at 60 percent - a drop of about 5 points, but still a
very high number.
Why the high ratings? The controversy surrounding Monica
Lewinsky has so monopolized public attention that it is all that
the public is able to hear. To have a negative view of Clinton's
job performance has become tantamount to saying that you
hold the adultery against him. To approve is to say that adultery
shouldn't be part of judging a president. In a curious way,
l'affaire Lewinsky has stopped the American public from
judging the job performance of this president and has insulated
him from the negatives that he deserves for the failures of his
policies.
The blunt fact is that Bill Clinton has not been a very good
president since the Lewinsky scandal darkened his
administration. Whether through distraction or just a lack of
skill, he has not lived up to the high standards of progress or
momentum he established since 1995. Consider the evidence:
His tobacco legislation was defeated because he blundered in
including a tax hike on cigarettes, making the package
vulnerable to advertising by the cigarette companies.
He was completely blindsided by the Indian and Pakistani
nuclear blasts. He had paid no real attention to the
subcontinent and likely had allowed Indian paranoia to be
stimulated by his satellite deals with the Chinese.
His decision to postpone tax cuts until Social Security was
"fixed", and then to delay fixing Social Security until next year,
deprived him of an agenda and of tactical flexibility. A genuine
achievement on Social Security, or a broad-based tax cut,
would be just what his lagging administration could use right
now, but he has taken both off the table to his own detriment.
He decided to use funds from the tobacco-tax increase to pay
for his ambitious plans for Medicare expansion and new
child-care initiatives. When the tobacco tax went down, so did
these programs. He should have used current surplus revenues
or funds from new spending cuts to pay for these programs. If
he had, he would have some very nice bills to sign this summer.
He has been far too preoccupied to proceed with appropriate
vigor in Kosovo and has let a chance for peace to take root in
the Balkans escape.
He has failed to press aggressively for his
educational-standards proposal and has let the Republicans
quietly fail to take it up.
Fortunately for Clinton, America has not noticed these failings.
It has been so distracted by the Lewinsky scandal and Starr's
investigation that it has had no time to tune in on the president's
actual job performance. Clinton is coasting off the fights of
1995, the welfare-reform bill of 1996, and the budget deal of
1997. That 1998 has been a total void seems to have escaped
everybody's notice.
Clinton should:
Get moving on Social Security reform. The public will follow the
process with its whole attention, Republicans will gladly take a
back seat, and Clinton can pull a big accomplishment out of the
hat.
Negotiate personally on the subcontinent, using his
considerable ability and charm to broker a deal between India
and Pakistan.
Reintroduce the tobacco bill without the tax increase. The
cigarette companies have so focused on the tax hike as their
basis for opposing the bill that without the taxes to attack, they
would have little ability to mobilize public sentiment against the
legislation. It would likely pass easily. If it went down, it would
be just the kind of issue Democrats need to stay alive in 1998.
Work out a tax-cut deal with the GOP and pass it in
September. Nothing would look better than a tax cut with his
signature on it. The Republicans will gladly cooperate because
they want the achievement to advertise in the fall elections.
As part of the tax-cut deal, use some of the surplus for
child-care programs and/or Medicare expansion. Republicans
will likely agree to these new programs in return for the tax cut
they want, need, and would cherish.
Start pushing for indexing the minimum wage to the cost of
living. The GOP will oppose this common-sense initiative and it
will give Clinton a good place to stand rhetorically.
Be aggressive in vetoing any spending bill which cuts
education funding. Let the Republicans threaten to close down
the government again. Over an issue like schools, this is the
right fight at the right time for this president.
To save his presidency, Clinton has to use his presidency. To
keep in office, he has to act, initiate programs and exercise his
power. There are simple ways to do this. Get your head out of
the sand, Mr. President, and start moving. |
