PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year Message Board

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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year

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Oct 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (2066)	9/2/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: growthvalue	Read Replies (2) of 4509

Melissa, I'm actually worried about Y2k and can't see how a slowdown is not avoidable at some point between now and then. So I think Peoplesoft may conceivably encounter operational problems - if not now, then soon. I'm also thinking it could be similar to I2's announcement (which I realize wasn't a preannouncement) - I2's quarter was fine as they were a penny ahead of expectations, but they said they were seeing weakness in the pipeline. As far as guidance changing quickly - Manugistics and I2 certainly changed their guidance on relatively short notice (and I think their weakness is Y2k related). I think regardless of PSFT management's experience, it's possible that business can soften quickly. And it's what happened to MANU and ITWO. Why would MANU have blown out their quarter the way they did if they expected business to soften so rapidly? I think it must have been a big surprise - a sudden weakness in the market. I also think if Peoplesoft is seeing weakness in the pipeline that is not in accordance with the guidance they've given, it would make sense for them to announce it now, as soon as they know, rather than announce it at the quarter. I mean, if it doesn't make sense to make a negative announcement that is not about this quarter, why does it make sense to make a positive announcement that isn't about this quarter? Where's the precedent for that? I think this is a weird unprecedented call either way you slice it and that it could conceivably go either way. Believe me, I agree with you that they could be calling the conference to assuage fears in the investment community and say "everything's fine." I just wouldn't don't dismiss the possibility that it's negative, especially with Y2K looming in the distance. GV

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