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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing

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Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (36)	9/3/1998 9:28:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (1) of 10661

Sun, Nice post and nice thread, thanks for the invitation. I agree that recession is an excess of inventory and a depression is an excess of capacity to produce that inventory. I'm waiting for a major low in late October when the 9 month cycle low and 4 year cycle low are both due to occur. Surely, the market is anticipating a recessionary slowdown of profits. But, I suspect that this slowdown may last for no more than two or three quarters. By then, the market would likely be well off these forthcoming lows. Continued lower interest rates will fuel the market's upward move. Global economies may be having some problems, but it ain't the end of the world. Deals will be made, policies will be modified, and economic order will be restored. Why do I think so? Simple. Because the alternative is civil unrest and upheaval, especially in Russia where the Russian soldier has not been paid in more than five months and political tempers are already getting worn. Another Russian revolution is the alternative. I agree that fear drives markets down. Fear is also an early indicator of a bottom. I'll keep my powder dry until late October and review the situation then. Best Regards, GZ

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