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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Tom Trader who wrote (3230)9/4/1998 9:24:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin  Read Replies (2) of 44573
 
Good Morning,

I just saw a reference to the 55 day cycle, which has come up a lot in the last year or so. I believe this is the third time in the past year...perhaps fourth in the last 18 months.

The cycle hits on 12th, which makes the 14th a precarious trading day per the theory.

A psychological theory, it is based on the concept that a major pullback has it's greatest risk 55 calendar days after a top.

If I recall my "Myths and Legends" stuff correctly, the '87 decline was 55 days, the October '97 was around that neighborhood, and the '29 crash was 55 days. I am reaching back into the abyss to remember this stuff, but that is the general idea.

Of course, it does not happen each time, it's just that it is considered to be a high risk day because of the psychological issue. Which is, people generally get worn out after 55 days, evidently.
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