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Politics : Did Slick Boink Monica?

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To: Les H who wrote (18903)9/7/1998 1:03:00 AM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) of 20981
 
Hooray for the Government Surplus:

Social Security Key to Surplus

By The Associated Press

The optimistic outlook for budget surpluses in coming years is based on forecasts that rely heavily on surpluses generated by Social Security.

Right now, the government collects more in Social Security payroll taxes than needed to pay current benefits. The excess money is used to finance other government programs.

Technically, the rest of the government borrows the Social Security surplus money and the Social Security trust fund receives a government IOU in return.

For the current 1998 budget year, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the budget will have a surplus of $63 billion. But the budget would actually be in deficit by $41 billion without the excess that Social Security is collecting, beyond what it needs to pay this year's benefits.

Without the Social Security tax revenue, the $1.6 trillion in surpluses through 2008 shrink to a far smaller $169 billion.

That is the reason total government debt will still go up in coming years, even though the overall budget is running surpluses. Debt held by the public -- through savings bonds and Treasury bills -- is going down. But the debt held by the Social Security trust fund -- as IOUs -- is still headed up.

The Social Security trust fund will keep growing until the demands of retiring baby boomers surpass the annual payroll tax, now projected to occur in 2013.

At that time, the government will turn to the trust fund to make up the shortfall between annual payroll tax collections and the needs of the Social Security retirees. But the trust fund is simply a bookkeeping entry consisting of all the IOUs the government has issued while borrowing the excess Social Security money.

The government could deal with the Social Security shortfall starting in 2016 by borrowing directly from the public, or by cutting benefits to retirees or raising Social Security taxes.
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