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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (3443)	9/8/1998 2:29:00 PM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) of 44573

Hi OJ, Long time. The 13 dma is at OEX 506, just yesterday it crossed the 200 dma down for the 1st time since '94, confirming IMO that the long term trend is down. Only if we pass it (around 1030 SPX) will I be ready to admit that the crash phase is over. Otherwise I stick to my opinion that we're in the middle of a '29 style crash. The Millennium Crash. I was expecting this correction (from the bottom on 9/1) to be one legged, and it came to be two legged. The 34th trading day from the top is historically the beginning of the REAL crash (Dow '29, Nikkei '89, Hang Seng '97). It is disturbing, however, that the trading since the bottom on 9/1 is almost the same as the days following the October mini crash. So I guess if we don't break down by tomorrow afternoon, or if we pass OEX 506 / SPX 1030, I will have to change my tune. EDIT: BTW, what was it that AG said that marked the bottom? ATG

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