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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (3507)	9/9/1998 9:24:00 AM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) of 44573

>>Because we had a +5% day, or do you have another reason? Short-term trend for me is governed by my system--it has not always been right as you know--but seems like it works often enough to make it worth taking seriously. Also, "short-term" for me isused in the context of futures trading--and is subject to varying interpretation. Not unlike bear/bull markets--to me the former is a down trending market and the latter is the opposite--I think all this business of 20% and so is rather ludicrous--most averages are down 20% or more and just because the DOW and SPX, etc are not does not change that reality. Tell the person who bought AMAT or CCI at the highs that we are not in a bear market and see what he says. The 5% move was impressive--but not of itself a call to turn bullish. No more so than a 5% move on the down side from the high at 9300 would have been a call to go bearish. Besides as I posted, sharp rallies are a characteristic of marked down-trends. What I would look for is momentum easing off--which would then argue for a decline of sorts. >>Maybe I'm banging my head against the wall, standing in front of the train, piXXing into the wind....<< The latter is a harmless recreation--the former could be hazardous to your health:) >>But until I see the market over the 13 dma (not far from here at all), I'd stick by my crash scenario.<< Why is the 13dma so critical to your scenario regarding a crash occuring?? >>The confirmations I need- SPX intraday under 1000 today, under 970 tomorrow. Then a crash combination is in the cards for Friday-Monday. << And if these levels are not reached -- what would that indicate for next week and thereafter. Suppose the SPX stays between 1000 and 1031(13dma, I think) what would that suggest for the market outlook??

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