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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (3759)	9/10/1998 11:43:00 AM
From: The Jedi	Read Replies (1) of 44573

Clintongate is discounted. We are discounting that Clinton will resign, that is what will happen today and tomorrow. As for earnings: S&P 500 earnings have been revised down, and the revisions are not over yet. Any further down revision and we will be negative over last quarter. Now South America is rearing its head. Even with revisions downwards some companies are going not meet those expectation. Do not get seduced by the bull argument. Their will be a bull rally in early October and then more selling. By that time other countries should be going down. Brazil down -11% and still going down. As for sentiment it does not matter. We have not seen the climactice selling yet. When the market was going higher there was so much bullisheness, nobody said that there is so much bullishness that we won't go higher. We kept going up. Internet Stocks kept doubling every 3 -6 months. Even with this bearishenss we will still be going down. The public is going to feel the pinch when they loose their money from the mutual funds, and start withdrawing. Remember the oils in Jan, people thought here is the bottom. We are still trying to find the bottom here. I do believe that we will be sub 900 SPX before the end of Oct. As for the bulls they can't see that (bulls are short sighted anyway... LOL). The problem with sentiment indicators is that they do not work at real extremes. Bernie shafer got bullish on stocks just as soon as the market started to take a dive. He is still advocating calls and most of them are under water, and will remain so. Kiri

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