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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (3976)	9/16/1998 11:44:00 AM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) of 44573

Arik--not sure where you are at this point in terms of what the market is telling you. The rally from Friday's low has been the most sustained one that we have had since the big decline commenced. I will be looking closely at how it fares when the next decline begins. If the decline is controlled and the internals show improvement, I would be inclined to think that the worst may be over for now. I would ideally like to see it test that 7400 level and hold--with improving internals. There are several reasons for this opinion--seasonality should favor the market after October, bearish sentiment is at extreme levels, the BKX rallied strongly off the lows, insider buying is continuing at record levels, a favorable interest rate environment. I am not sold that the we have seen the end of the decline--I am suggesting however, that if the next decline cannot penetrate the recent lows then the odds may be that we are likely to see a significant rally. Would be interested in your thoughts as to what it would take for you to turn bullish as opposed to deciding that the crash scenario will not materialize.

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