I'll make it easy for everyone.
TLc has a flawed business plan. They've based it on acquisitions, and slash & burn... within an industry which isn't growing, has no competitive barriers to entry and the changing technology is too fast paced that negates any long term planning.
it's also hyped too much either by analysts or shills.
since gaap allows for financial engineering of stmts especially for acquisitions, TLC has found a formula to keep the ball in the air.
most investors will not realize it, but have been successfully re-directed to focus on operating earnings instead of the bottom line.
More important, TLC has used Reg S to issue convertible warrants or shares. historically, this practice hurts the individual investor, but many hyping TLC ignore this, since if TLC stumbles, they short it and hedge the conversion.
empirical evidence suggests that those investors have been shorting TLC. The reason is that during the spring frenzied acquisition blitz TLC analysts ie., Robbbie Stevens,
207.203.38.34
forecasted that with TLC's April mktshare in edu. of 35.9%(as hi as 37% by others) plus the acquisition of Sofsource with 4% then Brod of 6%, giving TLC as much as 46%!!!
However, since June TLC dropped share to 31% and now may be only 34%.
Obviously the plan isn't working and it can be roughly tracked by the diminishing number of TLC titles listed on the weekly best seller lists.
pcdata.com
lastly, TLC has no competitve advantage and its become a retail stock.
(all the analysts have predicated their forecasts on overall retail growth of the industry.)
if you believe in the -ve wealth effect of the stockmkt, then TLC as well as others, are doomed.
usual sign posts will be:
1)dropping asp's, which at the beginning of the year the analysts all claimed had stabilized!
2)higher dso's, with higher inventories and receiveables etc.
3)the usual Nov TLC acquisition of other companies.
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