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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year
PSFT 0.00010000.0%Oct 29 5:00 PM EST
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To: Eddie Kim who wrote (2236)9/18/1998 12:57:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) of 4509
 
Eddie, obviously your friend has the credentials to back up his opinion, right? Has he done any statistical studies that back up his contention? I doubt it.

Do yourself a favor -- read the book. It's inexpensive and available in paperback (around $18). It is the only book of its kind that is both readable and backed up by statistical studies and financial and economic models every step of the way. There is nothing in the book that is not supported by data and statistical analysis.

Some time back there was a poster on this thread who claimed that PSFT had definitely bottomed. His position was backed by technical analysis, and he was dead certain. I asked him if he would repudiate TA and market timing if PSFT fell further. He declined my challenge. But PSFT did fall another 10% or so shortly thereafter.

Eddie, what I mock are statements claiming a position which is not backed by fact, and repudiated by by a host of well-documented statistical studies. About 20 years ago I subjected stock market movements to ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) analysis. The study showed that the price movements were a random walk. I then did a computer search for so-called "head and shoulders" formations which are widely regarded by technicians as predictive of declining prices. Conclusion: there was no predictive power in these formations. The data speak volumes, but apparently technicians are deaf.

TTFN,
CTC
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