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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing
PICK 48.88-0.6%4:00 PM EST
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (130)9/22/1998 10:05:00 AM
From: Daniel Chisholm  Read Replies (1) of 10682
 
Sun Tzu, re:

<<Do you have a take on how much and how long can the governement keep a floor under Nikkei?>>

I really don't know. However, as long as I continue to think that Japan is in trouble that they are not facing, I will remain short the yen.

The banks are the interesting and scary thing, worldwide. I remember reading in one of Soros' books that he was very concerned about a worldwide banking system collapse in 1990 or so, which we know did not come to pass. I'd love to know what he's thinking about today, whether he considers the risks today to be bigger or smaller.

Be just as cautious and critical of "derivatives will cause the world to end" articles as you might be of overly optimistic articles. Don't just see the (apparently) huge notional value of the derivatives and assume that there's trouble in River City. The notional value of these contracts, while impressive, is meaningless unless you know the nature of the derivatives, which is seldom discussed. A million dollars worth of T-Bill futures (derivatives) contracts, for instance, is far less volatile that a million dollars worth of 30-year US Bond futures or a million dollars worth of Ruble futures. Details matter!

- Daniel
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