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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (6010)	10/9/1998 11:21:00 AM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (3) of 44573

Hi OJ re >>if a rate increase would occur NOW, this market would implode... If by implode you mean head much higher, I wonder........ Given the Greenspan MO, I would think that any spurt would be momentary, because it would be so unusual for a rate cut to follow 10 days after the previous one, that the market may well interpret it as a sign that the Fed is really apprehensive that things are coming apart. A cut in November seems a given -- and it could be 1/2 point -- though with the dollar as weak as it is it may be only 1/4 point. The problem that I am having is that the magnitude of the moves that we are seeing in the bonds and currencies are so incredible that I feel that it has to do with the unwinding of hedge fund positions and other external factors. Under normal circumstances, a decline such as we have seen in the bonds would represent a major trend reversal.

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