TsioKawe, < your bullish indicators >
Indicators may give a short term upside to the marketplace, but won't hold water long due to the huge hole in the bucket, so to speak.
I'll use Brazil, but other South and Central America countries
along with Asia apply. The banking system is in financial ruin,
unable to even pay interest on loans. Unemployment is extremely
high with no liquidity to cash flow, consumer or industry.
The amount of reduced exports to Brazil will be, I think 30 billion,
and corresponds to reduced employment in the U.S. by 200,000 jobs.
Reference CNBC last night. This is the effect of Brazil only.
Until these countries are able to minimize crony capitalism, a
very difficult task when the cronys control the banks, look for a
U.S. economy to be dependant on itself. These countries are in a
very similar situation as the U.S. was during the 1930's. All in my
humble opinion of coarse, I'm sure you'll disagree, but hang on to
your ass for the next several years. Only time, and not long, will
prove me correct or wrong. Ask Bill Seadman. :-)
Like analysts, I have my own forecast. Kiss it goodbye in qtr2, 99
until 2002.
Larry |
