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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures
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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (6979)10/22/1998 9:55:00 AM
From: Tom Trader  Read Replies (1) of 44573
 
>>About 6 months ago I mentioned on TSO that the BKX was a leading indicator but it's only now that is accepted<<

Patrick, I have a clear recollection of having read this on the TSO thread--though I must confess that I don't recall who said it. We never chatted at the time, else I'd probably have remembered that it was you--anyway, it was certainly a prescient call that could have been profitably traded. Now I did hear a couple of the talking heads on CNBC say something on the same lines--but I really dismiss most of what these guys say.

>>and yet the cycle is rotating to the NDX, I am sure. Look at intraday activity late today. The NDX dragged the market up late. <<

I shall watch this -- since you have pointed it out, yet again. The reality is that that various sectors are considered to be the leaders at various times and yes, they do go through cycles. I recall some years ago it was felt that that without the technology stocks leading the charge, the market could not make much headway. I think that the significance of the BKX at this point is that it serves as a proxy of sorts for the structural problems that exist within the financial system--and whether they are being overcome/under control or not.

One of the reasons that I am somewhat enthusiastic about the upside potential of the market is the improvement in the internals and the way the RUT is performing. Now, combine that with the Fed easing -- and it suggests that at the least, the downside may be limited. The anemic growth in earnings however, remains a major negative, IMO.
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