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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: Jack Jagernauth who wrote (6079)	11/1/1998 8:34:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) of 18928

Jack, The technology is way over most peoples heads. I've been looking at this industry for about 18 months and I still do not understand the technical publications or the subtle aspects of the industry. That is good news and bad news. The bad news is that I can't find the latest trend technically or determine if a new product is going to sell technically. The good news is neither can the analysts that recommend these stocks. ;-) A friend of mine told me this story. His friend was an electrical engineer and had acquired a job in a brokerage house. Since his background was technical they assigned him to cover the communications chip sector and the nuts and bolts of the communications industry. They were having lunch one day and my friend started to talk about ATM chips. The discussion went on for a while until my friend realized his friend was talking about chips that went into the banking machines. This story just goes to illustrate that the people making the recommendations are not necessarily the brightest bulbs in the room in this area either. Don't sweat the details. Use the Peter Lynch method and follow the trend. Internet usage up -> bandwidth demands -> increased capital expenditures -> more telecommunications and data networking equipment -> more communications chip sales. You can stop at the equipment area and buy Cisco or you can go one step farther into the communications chips. Cisco is not really a suitable candidate for AIM since it rarely stumbles, but these chip stocks really swing around. ---- Dave

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