Will there be an Influenza Pandemic in the winter 1998-99? Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Will there be an Influenza Pandemic in the winter 1998-99?

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To: Mike McFarland who wrote (2)	11/3/1998 10:22:00 PM
From: Mark Bartlett	Read Replies (1) of 19

Mike, People greatly underestimate the true severity of influenza. In fact most people think it is a G/I problem ..... true influenza is of course, a respiratory problem - and a potentially severe one at that. In the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, 20 million people died - and many of those were young healthy children and adults. That bug underwent an antigenic shift (as opposed to a drift) resulting in a new bug that attacked the entire body - not just the respiratory system. People were literally well to sick to dead in a few hours. It could happen again. The so-called chicken flu last year showed an H5 factor - not unusual in animals - but not (until last year) noted in people. These major antigenic shifts are the stuff pandemics are made of - fortunately for us, other factors that make flu easily communicable were not found in the H5 strain .... so far that is. As a result, while there was some indication of person to person transmission, it was not a big part of the H5 spread - most was directly from animals .... birds in this case. This is why the flocks were destroyed - as well as to prevent further chance for genetic material exchange. This is a warning call though .... if this new bug takes a liking to people and gains the capacity to spread easily, there will be more pandemics. Antiviral meds are available (amatadine and rimantadine), but they are usually reserved for outbreaks or for those at high risk for serious secondary effects. I'm not sure whether they would work against an H5 strain or not .... hope not to find out either. True influenza kills about 60,000 Americans and 6,000 Canadians each year ... and costs a boatload in medical hospital admissions follow-up etc. Hope that helps, MB

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