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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (7935)	11/5/1998 3:31:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (2) of 44573

>>Like Suresh alluded to, a direct run up sounds dangerous longer term but I would not doubt it<< I don't really understand that rationale though I've heard others say it also. Don also says something about the bubble being larger if it keeps going up. We all know that it will correct but that does not mean that it has to go all the way down. My problem is that although I trade off technicals, from an investment stand-point the fundamentals don't justify what has happened. So I keep trading but other than some fairly limited investments that I made during the sell-off, I am still in cash for the most part. Besides, specialist shorting is at levels that one sees during market tops and they have a pretty good track record when it comes to catching the major trend. >>A pullback to the teens sounds unrealistic; too much momentum would come off, don't you think?<< Not sure what you are referring to and within what time frame >>There is an old school of thought; this 33 level has been challenged twice. The third time (rarely, the fourth time) there is a high percentage likelihood of it going through and usually with power<< I'd agree with that -- and if we close reasonably strong today, we could see a gap open tomorrow to the upside which will take out that level. >>So if one were to subscribe to that line of thought, it would be unwise to be caught on the wrong side once it returns in that direction<< The one thing that I did right this am was to take care of the naked calls on the OEX at the 550 level. So I don't have to worry about that now -- and I am now net long on the OEX. Will short some OEX calls when things look right. Don't have the cajones to short the puts given where we are. >>I think I shall position myself somehow for a long entry. This Carpino thing that you, Fred and Suresh are speaking of has me a bit cautious though<< Carpino is someone who I had never heard of until Fred mentioned him -- though I do believe in cycles when it comes to markets. I look on Carpino, Favors and so on in the same way that I look at what Iqbal says about the levels that the pits are looking at -- something to keep in mind but not necessarily to make trading decisions. BTW, Iqbal was right when he said the pits were shooting for the 1130 level. I need to check with him --but I think he said something to the effect that if the 1130 level is taken out we could go to 1180 -- not sure if that is based on the pits or his opinion. >>I heard from Coug, he nailed 6 in a row before missing one yesterday<< Good for him -- I guess he was not comfortable posting the trades -- well that is understandable, since some people feel that way. >> <this position trading thing is not all bad! > Yes, only what the hell do I do with all the time I will have on my hands, work around the house like Nemer for God's sake?<< Do what I do -- position trade in one account and day trade in the other. One does not have to be at the exclusion of the other for heavens sake. The thing about day trading is that just when I feel that I am getting the hang of it -- I screw up. So we'll just have to see how that comes along. We could see some strength to the close.

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