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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures
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To: Suresh who wrote (7960)11/6/1998 9:52:00 AM
From: Tom Trader  Read Replies (1) of 44573
 
Hi Suresh -- re the rally --yes it is amazing

We have gone up literally 200 points on the SPX with barely a break -- and all in less than one month!!

As far as what will happen hereafter, I have no idea --- my ability to forecast what the market will do is not worth much -- and that probably goes for most forecasters. Some are better at it than others. What I know works for me is to trade with the trend -- and for now the trend is decidedly to the upside.

From a fundamental stand-point, I cannot fathom this rally -- but from a technical stand-point, it seems clear that the path of least resistance for now is to the upside.

My system is on a buy signal but I am flat; the momentum of the move including yesterday's action now means that my system cannot give a sell signal without some erosion in the momentum. In other words, the next sell signal if it occurs today, will be one that I would need to ignore and then go long when the next buy signal occurs. The sell signal thereafter, would be the one to take.

Specialist/member shorts are a problem, IMO for the upside in this market--not that there will not be more upside, but this is a group who are invariably right and so one has to be wary of this. What surprised me with the recent decline is that the shorts by this group did not come down to the levels that one associates with a bottom.

Hope that you are doing well.

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