Sun, nice FA on VISX. Just a few comments.
1. Are you assuming VISX is the only player in the field? Even if it is the dominate player now, we can not rule out the threat of new entry into the market, or threat from new/better technology.
2. I like the idea of thinking about long term future (10+ years). In fact, I believe that is the only way for average investors (not traders) to "strike gold." However, looking into the future is anything but easy. A solid long term strategy is needed.
3. I remember that Summit Tech (BEAM) was supposedly making a kill in 1995 when the technology was developed. Well, the stock saw its high in 95 at 30+ but now at 4+. Is Summit a competitor of VISX?
4. Looking back the stock price of VISX for the last few years. It seems the stock is more likely to go down than up. Of course, history does not always repeat itself.
5. Short term, there is some buying (accumulation). But the 50 MA is still under 100 MA. I'd rather wait till the the longer term up trend becomes clear.
>The question then is, is it worth to pay $58 today to earn $1,000 over the next 10 years.
I wonder if this is the right question. Paying $58 to earn $1000 is not the same to say that the stock price will be $1000 in 10 years. That would be very good though, an annualized return of 33%. However, nobody in their right mind can be even sure that the company will still be around in 10 years. Again, a long term strategy is need to make sure you sit tight when your prediction works in the right direction, and get out before disaster strikes. |
